So much to say, so much to see

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Quantum computing has become one of the most talked‑about technologies of the decade - a field surrounded by bold promises, dramatic headlines, and billion‑pound investments. Advocates claim it will revolutionise drug discovery, crack encryption, and solve problems classical computers could never touch. Critics argue the technology is decades away from practical use.

So what’s real, what’s exaggerated, and where does quantum computing actually stand today?

The hype: quantum as a near‑term revolution

Quantum computing has been framed as a near‑instant disruptor - a technology on the brink of transforming entire industries. Much of this hype stems from:

1. Headlines about “quantum supremacy”

Google’s 2019 announcement that its Sycamore processor solved a problem in 200 seconds that would take a supercomputer thousands of years fuelled the belief that quantum machines were about to overtake classical computing.

2. Claims of breaking encryption

Popular narratives suggest quantum computers will soon break RSA encryption using Shor’s algorithm. In reality, this would require millions of error‑corrected qubits - far beyond current capabilities.

3. Big‑tech announcements

Recent announcements from Google, Microsoft, and AWS have generated excitement, but many of these breakthroughs are still early‑stage and not yet commercially deployable. As Moody’s notes, “the hardware is not ready yet” - qubits remain error‑prone and difficult to scale reliably.

4. Over‑interpretation of research milestones

Google’s Willow chip, for example, made genuine progress in reducing error rates and improving coherence, but it is still a step toward - not the arrival of - practical quantum computing.

The hype is not baseless, but it often compresses timelines and overstates readiness.

The reality: extraordinary potential, significant limits

Quantum computing is advancing - but it is advancing within strict physical and engineering constraints.

1. We are in the NISQ era

Today’s machines are “Noisy Intermediate‑Scale Quantum” devices: powerful research tools, but limited by high error rates and short coherence times.

• Even the best two‑qubit operations fail at rates above 0.1%.  
• Algorithms must be extremely short before noise overwhelms results.  
• Large‑scale error correction - essential for practical quantum computing - remains out of reach.

2. Qubit count ≠ capability

Companies now boast hundreds of qubits, but raw numbers are misleading. Without error correction, more qubits simply mean more noise.

3. Hardware challenges are immense

Quantum computers require extreme conditions - often near absolute zero - and qubits are fragile. As one analysis notes, “physical qubits remain in relatively short supply and far too error‑prone for reliable computation”.

4. Practical applications are narrow (for now)

Quantum computing is already useful in research contexts such as:

• simulating quantum systems.
• exploring new materials.
• testing quantum algorithms.

But everyday commercial applications remain limited. As TechyNerd notes, “practical, everyday applications for the general public remain elusive”.

Where quantum computing is making real progress

Despite the limitations, the field is moving forward in meaningful ways.

1. Error‑corrected qubits are becoming more realistic

Google’s Willow chip demonstrated “below‑threshold” error rates - a crucial step toward scalable, fault‑tolerant quantum computing.

2. Hybrid quantum‑classical models are emerging

Most experts agree the near‑term future is hybrid: classical computers handling most tasks, with quantum processors tackling specific sub‑problems.

3. Governments and industry are investing heavily

Global investment is accelerating research, infrastructure, and talent pipelines - laying the groundwork for long‑term breakthroughs.

So…when will quantum computing matter?

The honest answer: not tomorrow, but not in the distant future either.

• Short term (now–5 years): research breakthroughs, hybrid models, niche scientific applications.
• Medium term (5–15 years): early commercial use cases in chemistry, optimisation, and materials science.
• Long term (15+ years): fault‑tolerant quantum computers capable of solving problems classical machines cannot.

Quantum computing is real, but so are its limits. The field is progressing - just not at the pace the hype suggests.

The bottom line

Quantum computing is neither a miracle nor a myth. It is a profound scientific and engineering challenge with extraordinary long‑term potential. The hype often overshoots, but the reality is still remarkable: we are building machines that operate on the rules of quantum mechanics, and each year brings us closer to practical impact.

The future will belong to organisations that understand both sides - the promise and the constraints - and prepare for a world where quantum and classical computing work together.